Eastern Africa Association
Eastern Africa Association
The Eastern Africa Association is a source of insightful and helpful publications, guides, and advice for all visitors to our website. Contributors include EAA analysts, our Members, and a wide range of experts and official commentators. As a key service for Members only, we produce a regular Newsletter which contains our analysis of developments in the region.
You can search for material using the filters below, or access the latest publications in the library further down the page.
Ethiopia’s current political and economic landscape is fraught with challenges. However, proactive engagement with international partners and strategic domestic reforms, presents opportunities for recovery and stability. As the nation strives to stabilise its economy and manage public discontent, the collaboration with the regional and international actors such as the IMF provides an important lifeline.
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Positive economic reforms, particularly the flotation of the Birr, continue to increase Ethiopia’s attractiveness as an investment destination, all while, concerns remain about the speed of implementation of these changes. The security situation in various parts of the country remain tense and new splits in the Tigray region threaten a return of instability there.
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The conflicts in Ethiopia are continuing with no obvious end in sight. A number of economic reforms are ongoing and the economy is growing despite challenges.
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Anxieties are rising over an apparent proliferation of new inter-regional and communal conflicts across different parts of the country, as well as a deterioration of long-running ones. This is having a detrimental effect on Ethiopia’s fiscal stability, exacerbated by a growing debt problem. However, the economy is showing robust growth and a National Dialogue process aimed at achieving settlement of various conflicts is finally underway.
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Concerns remain high about Ethiopia’s lingering internal conflicts, which threaten political stability and economic progress. Continued but slow progress continues on the economic front with the launch of the country’s securities exchange, and growth forecasts are down.
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Ethiopia continues to pursue its ambition to achieve access to the sea through its MoU with Somaliland, all while dialling down the rhetoric and pursuing a more diplomatic approach, which could open a path to talks with Somalia. A Cabinet reshuffle continues to consolidate Prime Minister Abiy’s hold on the administration. On international trade, the country made significant progress on economic cooperation with Kenya and compliance with a number of AfCFTA commitments.
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Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland has cast the country into yet another high stakes dispute, with potential to drag it into conflict with its neighbors and affecting stability in the wider Horn of Africa region, and potentially beyond. Currently no efforts to begin mediation have been successful, so where the dispute goes from here is highly uncertain.
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Ethiopia still faces difficulties bringing its Amhara and Oromia conflicts to an end, which continue to impact investor perceptions of the market, and remain a drain on Government resources. New investment is still only trickling in. An investment grade downgrade by Fitch spelt bad news for the economy but debt relief from international institutions is on the horizon.
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Nervousness remains over Ethiopia’s ability to hold the peace in Tigray and re-establish order over other restive provinces, particularly Amhara. However, Ethiopia’s international partners are eager to normalise relations, and the Government is stepping up efforts to liberalise aspects of the economy, with signs that economic growth is picking up.
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