Declan Galvin is the Managing Director of Exigent Risk Advisory, a Nairobi-based strategic risk advisory firm dedicated to unlocking opportunities for clients across Africa’s emerging markets. He can be reached at Declan@exigent-risk.com or on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/declan-galvin/. This is a commentary and comments are welcome by email to info@eaa.co.ke

This commentary has been written by Declan Galvin the Managing Director of Exigent Risk Advisory and who was a speaker at the Association’s September 2024 members’ meeting.  The Association welcomes commentaries on topical issues from members and non-members.  If you are interested in writing one for future newsletters, please contact our Regional Executive Director, Nikhil Hira via email – nrh@eaa.co.ke

INCREASED CAUTION AROUND TERROR-RELATED RISKS IS APPROPRIATE THIS TIME OF YEAR

Increased concerns regarding terrorism-related risks in East Africa between August and January are reasonable, according to diplomatic alerts and historic patterns of extremist activity.

On balance, terror threats to most businesses and investors are less pronounced than the political or criminal risks they face.  However, East African countries continue to face a significant and growing threat from extremist actors domiciled in Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, as well as their affiliate networks or financiers mainly from the Middle East.  This reality means that businesses, investors, and other economic operators must consider this threat vis-à-vis their organisational vulnerabilities.

Notably, we should recognise that the August to January period of each calendar year is typically one of the highest risk periods in terms of the historic severity and volume of terrorist activity.  Keep in mind, however, a major caveat to that statement is that terrorist organisations are “learning organisations” and highly responsive to changes to the environment or opportunity costs, which means they eventually change their pattern of activity.

The severity of terrorist attacks, as well as important dates for terrorist actors in the East Africa region, between August and January is represented in the table below:

While there certainly have been other major terror attacks in the East Africa region not between the months of August to January, such as the June 2014 Mpeketoni attack and the April 2015 Garissa University attack, the volume of major extremist attacks during this period is of notable concern.  For example, the January 2019 DusitD2 attack happened on the three-year anniversary of the 2016 El Adde attack, which was used to amplify the significance and psychological impact of the act.

In addition to historically significant dates, the August to January calendar period also has a significant number of religious holidays, across many faiths, and is typically associated with partying.  December and January are high volume shopping months, occasioned by Christmas and New Year’s Eve, with a lot of foot-traffic in malls, restaurants, and bars.  This congestion and increased movement between cities to rural areas provides increased opportunity for terrorists to attack soft targets like malls, clubs, restaurants, and bars.

These are some of the reasons certain Embassies, and some East African governments, will issue terror alerts during this period.  Keen observers will be able to differentiate a general terror or security alert issued during this period with an event-driven alert which typically includes more specifics.  However, the alerts should be considered especially if coming from multiple sources.

So, what should individuals and businesses do with this information?

Panic and slowing of economic activity (e.g., not shopping or avoiding restaurants) should be the last resort.  As mentioned, businesses and investors are more exposed to political and criminal risk than terror activity even though the latter is more nightmarish.  Philosophically speaking, if we let the terrorists scare us away from living our best lives then we let them win.  Practically speaking, however, we should take measured steps during this period to protect ourselves from all forms of opportunistic violence.

For the most part, the way we protect ourselves from terrorist violence is using the same methods we use to protect ourselves from criminal violence.  We should always maintain situational awareness of physical threats, we need to plan and coordinate with family members or colleagues in case of emergency, and we should be responsible consumers of media to make evidence-based decisions from it.

All organisations, regardless their risk appetite, should engage with experts on how they can best prepare for emergency and crisis situations.  The right expert consultants can support your organisation plan to manage the major scenarios in order to mitigate against all types of risks.

Above all, individuals and organisations need to be prepared for the unexpected both from normal criminal activity and terrorist threats.

Declan Galvin is the Managing Director of Exigent Risk Advisory, a Nairobi-based strategic risk advisory firm dedicated to unlocking opportunities for clients across Africa’s emerging markets. He can be reached at Declan@exigent-risk.com or on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/declan-galvin/.

This is a commentary and comments are welcome by email to info@eaa.co.ke